Ukraine plans to ramp up its gas import capacity from Romania and Moldova as it prepares for a total halt to the Europe’s remaining Russian gas supplies that transit the war-torn country.

Russia axed almost all pipeline gas supplies to European Union nations via Ukraine in late 2022 in response to Western sanctions imposed following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine earlier the same year.

However, Russian gas supplies continued to EU member states Austria, Italy and Slovakia, as well as Moldova, via intact pipelines running across Ukraine at a rate of between 40 million and 42 million cubic metres per day.

Officials in Kyiv have suggested that continuing with Russian energy supplies after the current gas transit agreement between the two countries expires in December would allow the Kremlin to increase its influence over European Union governments.

“Far from being a mere energy source, Russian gas is a conduit for Russian influence, eroding the solidarity among EU member states. It is time to shut this back door firmly,” Kyiv-based industry analyst Sergyi Makogon said.

Ukraine’s gas transmission authority Operator GTS Ukrainy and Romania’s transmission operator Transgaz said in a joint project proposal document that gas market players may submit bids before the end of February to book future shipments from Romania to Ukraine, which would underpin planned capacity upgrade investments.

Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria together operate the legacy Trans-Balkan pipeline, built during the Soviet era and used by Russian gas giant Gazprom to deliver gas to Romania and Bulgaria until 2022.

According to the document, “there is no existing firm capacity” to Ukraine at the pipeline’s interconnection point between villages of Isaccea in Romania and Orlovka in Ukraine.

Operator GTS earlier said that total transmission capacity at the interconnection point is limited to 10.7 million cubic metres per day of gas from Romania to Ukraine, or about 3.9 billion cubic metres per annum of gas.

However, this capacity is not guaranteed to be available to Ukraine, as it is usually booked by Moldova, which halted purchases from Gazprom last year as part of a drive to diversify the sources of its energy supplies. Moldova is now importing gas from Europe.

The Trans-Balkan pipeline swerves into the southern part of Moldova soon after entering Ukraine in Orlovka, and exits Moldova in about 200 kilometres, heading towards the Pivdennobuzka compressor station in Ukraine.

First phase

Operator GTS said the key to boosting the availability of European gas via the Isaccea-Orlovka interconnection point to Ukraine lies inside the country.

An estimated €2.6 million ($2.9 million) upgrade in Orlovka and Pivdennobuzka will unlock firm and uninterrupted gas import capacity from Romania to Ukraine at a maximum rate of 15.5 MMcmd, or 5.7 Bcm per annum, according to the document.

Securing this firm capacity will not require any investments in Romania, according to Operator GTS.

The company said the proposed upgrade in Ukraine may be completed in the fourth quarter of 2025, shortly before the country’s first winter without Russian gas transit supplies.

Ukraine is allowed to use some of the gas for domestic consumption under so-called virtual reverse supply agreements with European buyers of the Russian volumes.

Second phase

A further expansion of the firm import capacity from Romania to Ukraine to an estimated 19.3 MMcmd, or 7 Bcm per annum, will require a coordinated effort between Operator GTS and Bulgaria’s gas pipeline operator Bulgartransgaz, according to the document.

Under the proposal, if Bulgartransgaz agrees to invest in additional compression capacity to boost pipeline gas pressure at the border between Romania and Bulgaria, Operator GTS may proceed with a €68.4 million upgrade at the Pivdennobuzka station.

This larger upgrade involves the construction of four additional pumping units at Pivdennobuzka to boost throughput capacity, Operator GTS said.

Upstream has approached Bulgartransgaz for comment.